Post a Comment On: Profit Hunting

I've stopped trading, I am not wired for TA. Position trading sounds good in theory, but in practice I cannot predict the market direction clearly enough. Whipsawed by non-trending markets. The time and risk to get a mere 10-20% return is not worth it.

My best bet is to wait for the next bear marker or recession, when I can easily get a 50-100% gain within a few years with less risk. I am comfortable going against the crowd. Wait for:
Newspaper says recession and job loss.Stocks fallen 50% from previous highsRevenues have fallen for 2 or 3 quarters, PEs become compressed.
Historically, bear markets may take up to 6 years in to occur Singapore (1998, 2001, 2003, 2008). 4 more years to go....

Next time, remember to:
Buy and hold. Bull markets last a lot longer that expected, and its painful not to participate. Don't know when/if I'd sell.Beware the market taking off too fast (e.g.: Mar 09, or after the AFC).... Need a simple criteria to catch this and speed up my buying.
In the meantime, my goals are:
Save enough for a meaningful stake.Research and track enough SGX companies (aim for 10) that I would be comfortable buying when things are going to hell..
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